What if?

  1. The question

    What if I had invested $500/week instead of trading Bitcoin?

    Historical result of putting $500 every week into the S&P 500 since 2015, versus the same dollars into Bitcoin. Real weekly curves, not a hypothetical return.

  2. Assumptions

    What this page actually assumes

    • $500 leaves the bank every week. No pausing, no “I’ll catch up next month.”
    • The baseline is a broad stock index (S&P 500), not an active Bitcoin trading account.
    • The counterfactual is the same $500/week into Bitcoin — still DCA, not leverage, not a basket of other coins.
    • Positions are held through the last date on the chart. No sales.
    • Figures are historical S&P 500 and Bitcoin paths used by SteadyGrow. They are not a brokerage statement and not a forecast.

  3. Historical data

    2020-01-03 → 2026-08-28

    The window starts in 2015, the earliest Friday series we publish. That includes the 2018 Bitcoin winter, COVID, 2021 highs, and 2022. Both legs use the same contribution calendar so the only variable is the asset.

    Series: S&P 500 and Bitcoin. Same contribution calendar. No data before 2015.

  4. Interactive simulation

    Change the habit, stay on the real curve

    Amount
    Start year

    $500/week · S&P 500

    2020-01-03 → 2026-08-28 · $500/week · S&P 500

    Contributed$174,000
    Held to the last date$310,672
    Return+78.5%
    SteadyGrow value$403,592
    vs blind DCA+$92,920
    S&P 5002020-01-03 → 2026-08-28 · $500/week
     +$92,920 vs blind (+29.9%)Ended +29.9%
    Blind DCASteadyGrow
    $0$106k$211k$317k$422k2020-012021-042022-092023-122025-052026-08

    $500/week · Bitcoin

    Same $500/week into Bitcoin

    2020-01-03 → 2026-08-28 · $500/week · Bitcoin

    Contributed$174,000
    Held to the last date$475,703
    Return+173.4%
    SteadyGrow value$658,487
    vs blind DCA+$182,784
    Bitcoin2020-01-03 → 2026-08-28 · $500/week
     +$182,784 vs blind (+38.4%)Ended +38.4%
    Blind DCASteadyGrow
    $0$251k$503k$754k$1.01M2020-012021-042022-092023-122025-052026-08

  5. Results

    What the numbers say

    Two honest histories: an S&P 500 habit versus a Bitcoin habit at the same weekly dollar amount. Bitcoin’s path is louder. The index path is the one most “I should have just invested” stories are actually about.

  6. What changes if…

    Nearby questions

    What if the weekly amount wasn't always the same?

    These pages fix the contribution. SteadyGrow keeps the same long-term budget and sizes weeks from valuation — more when markets are cheap, less when they're stretched.

    Get weekly signals — $29/quarterLive $500/wk experiment →