What if?

  1. The question

    What if I had invested $500/week instead of trading Bitcoin?

    Historical result of putting $500 every week into the S&P 500 since 2015, versus the same dollars into Bitcoin. Real weekly curves, not a hypothetical return.

    Quick answer

    If you invested $500/week into S&P 500 from 2018-01-05 through 2026-10-16, total contributions would have been about $229,500 and a blind DCA portfolio would be worth about $433,288 (+88.8%) on this historical path — before fees and taxes.

  2. Assumptions

    What this page actually assumes

    • $500 leaves the bank every week. No pausing, no “I’ll catch up next month.”
    • The baseline is a broad stock index (S&P 500), not an active Bitcoin trading account.
    • The counterfactual is the same $500/week into Bitcoin — still DCA, not leverage, not a basket of other coins.
    • Positions are held through the last date on the chart. No sales.
    • Figures are historical S&P 500 and Bitcoin paths used by SteadyGrow. They are not a brokerage statement and not a forecast.

  3. Historical data

    2018-01-05 → 2026-10-16

    The window starts in 2015, the earliest Friday series we publish. That includes the 2018 Bitcoin winter, COVID, 2021 highs, and 2022. Both legs use the same contribution calendar so the only variable is the asset.

    Series: S&P 500 and Bitcoin. Same contribution calendar. No data before 2015.

  4. Interactive simulation

    Change the habit, stay on the real curve

    Amount
    Start year

    $500/week · S&P 500

    2018-01-05 → 2026-10-16 · $500/week · S&P 500

    Contributed$229,500
    Held to the last date$433,288
    Return+88.8%
    S&P 5002018-01-05 → 2026-10-16 · $500/week
     +$203,788 vs cash inEnded $433,288 on $229,500 contributed
    Portfolio (DCA)Cash contributed
    $0$113k$225k$338k$451k2018-012019-102021-072023-032025-012026-10

    $500/week · Bitcoin

    Same $500/week into Bitcoin

    2018-01-05 → 2026-10-16 · $500/week · Bitcoin

    Contributed$229,500
    Held to the last date$1,000,438
    Return+335.9%
    Bitcoin2018-01-05 → 2026-10-16 · $500/week
     +$770,938 vs cash inEnded $1,000,438 on $229,500 contributed
    Portfolio (DCA)Cash contributed
    $0$376k$752k$1.13M$1.5M2018-012019-102021-072023-032025-012026-10

  5. Results

    What the numbers say

    Two honest histories: an S&P 500 habit versus a Bitcoin habit at the same weekly dollar amount. Bitcoin’s path is louder. The index path is the one most “I should have just invested” stories are actually about.

    The chart marks portfolio value over time for fixed-amount DCA and (when shown) a same-capital lump sum. Contributed cash rises in steps; ending value is mark-to-market on the last date (2026-10-16).

  6. What changes if…

    How did we calculate this?

    • Window: real market history from our published backtest bundle, typically from 2015 through the latest Friday in the series — we do not invent older decades.
    • Contribution calendar: the engine runs on a weekly Friday grid. A “monthly” habit is converted to an equivalent weekly cash rate ((amount × 12) / 52) so the same engine can compare habits.
    • Purchase timing: each period’s contribution is applied on that week’s bar in the series (close-based weekly path), not an intraday open fill.
    • Assets: S&P 500, Bitcoin, and other series we publish — USD only. No FX conversion.
    • Shares: fractional units are assumed. No brokerage commissions, bid–ask, or slippage are modeled.
    • Dividends / income: returns follow the wealth path in the backtest bundle for that asset (not a fixed 7–10% toy rate).
    • Lump sum (when shown): the same total cash as the DCA habit, invested on day one of the window, then marked to the same path.

    Frequently asked questions

    What if I had invested $500/week instead of trading Bitcoin?
    From 2018-01-05 to 2026-10-16, $500/week into S&P 500 contributed about $229,500 and a blind DCA habit ended near $433,288 (+88.8%).
    Are these numbers a forecast?
    No. They replay published market history from 2015 onward. Future returns can look nothing like this window.
    What assumptions matter most?
    Start date, contribution size, weekly vs monthly cadence, and whether you held through drawdowns. Fees and taxes are not modeled.
    Can I change the amount or start year?
    Yes — use the chips on this page when available, or open a related what-if / calculator with a different habit.
    How is this different from a 7% compound calculator?
    Fixed-rate toys assume a smooth return. We mark contributions to a real index/crypto path, including crashes in the window.
    What if I had traded instead?
    See The Boring Alternative for story-shaped counterfactuals (options losses, round-trips), then run the same dollars through an index DCA calculator.

    Run a related reality check

    Same contribution schedule, different assets — or a fixed-rate planning calculator when you want an illustration instead of history.

    S&P 500 vs BitcoinCompound interest →Boring Alternative →