What if?

  1. The question

    What if I started in 2015?

    $500 a week into the S&P 500 from 2015 — the earliest window we can show honestly. Compare with starting in 2020 or 2022 using the chips below.

  2. Assumptions

    What this page actually assumes

    • $500/week, S&P 500, no withdrawals.
    • “Started earlier” here means 2015, the first year on our weekly curves — not 10 years before that, and not a simulated childhood.
    • The comparison run starts in 2020 with the same weekly amount so you can see time-in-market on one page.
    • Year chips change the baseline start (and the comparison start if you pick a year). They never invent data before 2015.

  3. Historical data

    2018-01-05 → 2026-08-28

    2015–present includes a calm grind, a crash, a rebound, and a bear. A 2020 start skips the first five years of contributions and compounding. Both use the same Friday series.

    Series: S&P 500 and S&P 500. Same contribution calendar. No data before 2015.

  4. Interactive simulation

    Change the habit, stay on the real curve

    Amount
    Start year

    $500/week · S&P 500

    2018-01-05 → 2026-08-28 · $500/week · S&P 500

    Contributed$226,000
    Held to the last date$469,682
    Return+107.8%
    SteadyGrow value$653,009
    vs blind DCA+$183,327
    S&P 5002018-01-05 → 2026-08-28 · $500/week
     +$183,327 vs blind (+39.0%)Ended +39.0%
    Blind DCASteadyGrow
    $0$171k$342k$513k$684k2018-012019-092021-062023-032024-122026-08

    $500/week · S&P 500

    Same $500/week, but starting in 2020

    2020-01-03 → 2026-08-28 · $500/week · S&P 500

    Contributed$174,000
    Held to the last date$310,672
    Return+78.5%
    SteadyGrow value$403,592
    vs blind DCA+$92,920
    S&P 5002020-01-03 → 2026-08-28 · $500/week
     +$92,920 vs blind (+29.9%)Ended +29.9%
    Blind DCASteadyGrow
    $0$106k$211k$317k$422k2020-012021-042022-092023-122025-052026-08

  5. Results

    What the numbers say

    The early start usually wins on total value because more cash went in for longer. That is the whole trick. It is not a personality difference; it is calendar math on a real index.

  6. What changes if…

    Nearby questions

    What if the weekly amount wasn't always the same?

    These pages fix the contribution. SteadyGrow keeps the same long-term budget and sizes weeks from valuation — more when markets are cheap, less when they're stretched.

    Get weekly signals — $29/quarterLive $500/wk experiment →