What if?

  1. The question

    S&P 500 vs Bitcoin — same $500/month?

    Same $500/month into the S&P 500 and Bitcoin since 2015 — contributions and ending values side by side. Historical reality check, not a prediction.

    Quick answer

    If you invested $1000/month into S&P 500 from 2017-01-06 through 2026-09-04, total contributions would have been about $116,539 and a blind DCA portfolio would be worth about $219,007 (+87.9%) on this historical path — before fees and taxes.

  2. Assumptions

    What this page actually assumes

    • Identical monthly contributions; only the asset changes.
    • Held to the last available date. No trading, no leverage, no “sold the top.”
    • Start-year chips change both legs together when amounts match.

  3. Historical data

    2017-01-06 → 2026-09-04

    S&P 500 and Bitcoin weekly series from 2015 onward in this product. Bitcoin’s sample includes extreme drawdowns; the index does not move like crypto.

    Series: S&P 500 and Bitcoin. Same contribution calendar. No data before 2015.

  4. Interactive simulation

    Change the habit, stay on the real curve

    Amount
    Start year

    $1000/month · S&P 500

    2017-01-06 → 2026-09-04 · $1000/month · S&P 500

    Contributed$116,539
    Held to the last date$219,007
    Return+87.9%
    S&P 5002017-01-06 → 2026-09-04 · $1000/month
     +$102,468 vs cash inEnded $219,007 on $116,539 contributed
    Portfolio (DCA)Cash contributed
    $0$56.9k$114k$171k$228k2017-012018-122020-112022-102024-092026-09

    $1000/month · Bitcoin

    Same $500/month into Bitcoin

    2017-01-06 → 2026-09-04 · $1000/month · Bitcoin

    Contributed$116,539
    Held to the last date$684,769
    Return+487.6%
    Bitcoin2017-01-06 → 2026-09-04 · $1000/month
     +$568,231 vs cash inEnded $684,769 on $116,539 contributed
    Portfolio (DCA)Cash contributed
    $0$259k$517k$776k$1.03M2017-012018-122020-112022-102024-092026-09

  5. Results

    What the numbers say

    This page answers one question: same cash schedule, two assets, what happened. It does not say which you “should” own next.

    The chart marks portfolio value over time for fixed-amount DCA and (when shown) a same-capital lump sum. Contributed cash rises in steps; ending value is mark-to-market on the last date (2026-09-04).

  6. What changes if…

    How did we calculate this?

    • Window: real market history from our published backtest bundle, typically from 2015 through the latest Friday in the series — we do not invent older decades.
    • Contribution calendar: the engine runs on a weekly Friday grid. A “monthly” habit is converted to an equivalent weekly cash rate ((amount × 12) / 52) so the same engine can compare habits.
    • Purchase timing: each period’s contribution is applied on that week’s bar in the series (close-based weekly path), not an intraday open fill.
    • Assets: S&P 500, Bitcoin, and other series we publish — USD only. No FX conversion.
    • Shares: fractional units are assumed. No brokerage commissions, bid–ask, or slippage are modeled.
    • Dividends / income: returns follow the wealth path in the backtest bundle for that asset (not a fixed 7–10% toy rate).
    • Lump sum (when shown): the same total cash as the DCA habit, invested on day one of the window, then marked to the same path.

    Frequently asked questions

    S&P 500 vs Bitcoin — same $500/month?
    From 2017-01-06 to 2026-09-04, $1000/month into S&P 500 contributed about $116,539 and a blind DCA habit ended near $219,007 (+87.9%).
    Are these numbers a forecast?
    No. They replay published market history from 2015 onward. Future returns can look nothing like this window.
    What assumptions matter most?
    Start date, contribution size, weekly vs monthly cadence, and whether you held through drawdowns. Fees and taxes are not modeled.
    Can I change the amount or start year?
    Yes — use the chips on this page when available, or open a related what-if / calculator with a different habit.
    How is this different from a 7% compound calculator?
    Fixed-rate toys assume a smooth return. We mark contributions to a real index/crypto path, including crashes in the window.
    What if I had traded instead?
    See The Boring Alternative for story-shaped counterfactuals (options losses, round-trips), then run the same dollars through an index DCA calculator.

    Run a related reality check

    Same contribution schedule, different assets — or a fixed-rate planning calculator when you want an illustration instead of history.

    S&P 500 vs BitcoinCompound interest →Boring Alternative →