What if?

  1. The question

    Gold vs S&P 500 — same $500/month?

    Same $500/month contribution schedule in gold and the S&P 500 since 2015 — ending values side by side. Not a forecast; historical reality check.

    Quick answer

    If you invested $250/month into Gold from 2018-01-05 through 2026-09-04, total contributions would have been about $26,134 and a blind DCA portfolio would be worth about $54,662 (+109.2%) on this historical path — before fees and taxes.

  2. Assumptions

    What this page actually assumes

    • Identical monthly contributions into gold and the S&P 500.
    • Start year defaults to 2015; chips let you restart later and drop earlier history on purpose.
    • No fees, taxes, or currency FX beyond what is embedded in the price series.

  3. Historical data

    2018-01-05 → 2026-09-04

    Both series use the same SteadyGrow market window. This is a head-to-head habit comparison, not an argument that gold “should” beat equities or vice versa.

    Series: Gold and S&P 500. Same contribution calendar. No data before 2015.

  4. Interactive simulation

    Change the habit, stay on the real curve

    Amount
    Start year

    $250/month · Gold

    2018-01-05 → 2026-09-04 · $250/month · Gold

    Contributed$26,134
    Held to the last date$54,662
    Return+109.2%
    Gold2018-01-05 → 2026-09-04 · $250/month
     +$28,529 vs cash inEnded $54,662 on $26,134 contributed
    Portfolio (DCA)Cash contributed
    $0$16.4k$32.8k$49.3k$65.7k2018-012019-102021-072023-032024-122026-09

    $250/month · S&P 500

    Same $500/month into the S&P 500

    2018-01-05 → 2026-09-04 · $250/month · S&P 500

    Contributed$26,134
    Held to the last date$49,420
    Return+89.1%
    S&P 5002018-01-05 → 2026-09-04 · $250/month
     +$23,286 vs cash inEnded $49,420 on $26,134 contributed
    Portfolio (DCA)Cash contributed
    $0$12.8k$25.7k$38.5k$51.4k2018-012019-102021-072023-032024-122026-09

  5. Results

    What the numbers say

    Read ending value and total contributed first. Risk is not the same: drawdowns, recoveries, and volatility differ even when the cash schedule matches.

    The chart marks portfolio value over time for fixed-amount DCA and (when shown) a same-capital lump sum. Contributed cash rises in steps; ending value is mark-to-market on the last date (2026-09-04).

  6. What changes if…

    How did we calculate this?

    • Window: real market history from our published backtest bundle, typically from 2015 through the latest Friday in the series — we do not invent older decades.
    • Contribution calendar: the engine runs on a weekly Friday grid. A “monthly” habit is converted to an equivalent weekly cash rate ((amount × 12) / 52) so the same engine can compare habits.
    • Purchase timing: each period’s contribution is applied on that week’s bar in the series (close-based weekly path), not an intraday open fill.
    • Assets: S&P 500, Bitcoin, and other series we publish — USD only. No FX conversion.
    • Shares: fractional units are assumed. No brokerage commissions, bid–ask, or slippage are modeled.
    • Dividends / income: returns follow the wealth path in the backtest bundle for that asset (not a fixed 7–10% toy rate).
    • Lump sum (when shown): the same total cash as the DCA habit, invested on day one of the window, then marked to the same path.

    Frequently asked questions

    Gold vs S&P 500 — same $500/month?
    From 2018-01-05 to 2026-09-04, $250/month into Gold contributed about $26,134 and a blind DCA habit ended near $54,662 (+109.2%).
    Are these numbers a forecast?
    No. They replay published market history from 2015 onward. Future returns can look nothing like this window.
    What assumptions matter most?
    Start date, contribution size, weekly vs monthly cadence, and whether you held through drawdowns. Fees and taxes are not modeled.
    Can I change the amount or start year?
    Yes — use the chips on this page when available, or open a related what-if / calculator with a different habit.
    How is this different from a 7% compound calculator?
    Fixed-rate toys assume a smooth return. We mark contributions to a real index/crypto path, including crashes in the window.
    What if I had traded instead?
    See The Boring Alternative for story-shaped counterfactuals (options losses, round-trips), then run the same dollars through an index DCA calculator.

    Run a related reality check

    Same contribution schedule, different assets — or a fixed-rate planning calculator when you want an illustration instead of history.

    S&P 500 vs BitcoinCompound interest →Boring Alternative →