What if?

  1. The question

    What if I bought Bitcoin instead?

    $500 every week into Bitcoin since 2015 versus the same habit in the S&P 500. Same calendar, two assets, real weekly data.

    Quick answer

    If you invested $500/week into Bitcoin from 2022-01-07 through 2026-09-04, total contributions would have been about $122,000 and a blind DCA portfolio would be worth about $231,066 (+89.4%) on this historical path — before fees and taxes.

  2. Assumptions

    What this page actually assumes

    • Bitcoin DCA, $500/week, held. Not trading, not leverage, not a basket of alts.
    • Comparison is the identical contribution schedule in the S&P 500.
    • Start year defaults to 2015. Later starts drop the early cheap-Bitcoin years on purpose.

  3. Historical data

    2022-01-07 → 2026-09-04

    Bitcoin’s weekly series in this product begins in 2015. That is already a strong-history sample (low prices, then a cycle, then another). It is not 2009, and we do not back-fill those years.

    Series: Bitcoin and S&P 500. Same contribution calendar. No data before 2015.

  4. Interactive simulation

    Change the habit, stay on the real curve

    Amount
    Start year

    $500/week · Bitcoin

    2022-01-07 → 2026-09-04 · $500/week · Bitcoin

    Contributed$122,000
    Held to the last date$231,066
    Return+89.4%
    SteadyGrow value$378,906
    vs blind DCA+$147,840
    Bitcoin2022-01-07 → 2026-09-04 · $500/week
     +$147,840 vs blind (+64.0%)Ended +64.0%
    Blind DCASteadyGrow
    $0$134k$268k$402k$536k2022-012022-122023-112024-102025-092026-09

    $500/week · S&P 500

    Same $500/week into the S&P 500

    2022-01-07 → 2026-09-04 · $500/week · S&P 500

    Contributed$122,000
    Held to the last date$192,001
    Return+57.4%
    SteadyGrow value$259,919
    vs blind DCA+$67,918
    S&P 5002022-01-07 → 2026-09-04 · $500/week
     +$67,918 vs blind (+35.4%)Ended +35.4%
    Blind DCASteadyGrow
    $0$67.6k$135k$203k$270k2022-012022-122023-112024-102025-092026-09

  5. Results

    What the numbers say

    The Bitcoin habit and the index habit are not “risk-adjusted the same.” This page only answers the dollar question: same cash, two tickers, hold to the end.

    The chart marks portfolio value over time for blind DCA, SteadyGrow sizing, and (when shown) a same-capital lump sum. Contributed cash rises in steps; ending value is mark-to-market on the last date. SteadyGrow ends about $147,840 ahead of blind DCA on the same long-run budget.

  6. What changes if…

    How did we calculate this?

    • Window: real market history from our published backtest bundle, typically from 2015 through the latest Friday in the series — we do not invent older decades.
    • Contribution calendar: the engine runs on a weekly Friday grid. A “monthly” habit is converted to an equivalent weekly cash rate ((amount × 12) / 52) so the same engine can compare habits.
    • Purchase timing: each period’s contribution is applied on that week’s bar in the series (close-based weekly path), not an intraday open fill.
    • Assets: S&P 500, Bitcoin, and other series we publish — USD only. No FX conversion.
    • Shares: fractional units are assumed. No brokerage commissions, bid–ask, or slippage are modeled.
    • Dividends / income: returns follow the wealth path in the backtest bundle for that asset (not a fixed 7–10% toy rate).
    • Blind DCA vs SteadyGrow: blind buys the same cash every period; SteadyGrow keeps the same long-run budget but sizes weeks from the model’s multipliers.
    • Lump sum (when shown): the same total cash as the DCA habit, invested on day one of the window, then marked to the same path.

    Frequently asked questions

    What if I bought Bitcoin instead?
    From 2022-01-07 to 2026-09-04, $500/week into Bitcoin contributed about $122,000 and a blind DCA habit ended near $231,066 (+89.4%).
    Are these numbers a forecast?
    No. They replay published market history from 2015 onward. Future returns can look nothing like this window.
    What assumptions matter most?
    Start date, contribution size, weekly vs monthly cadence, and whether you held through drawdowns. Fees and taxes are not modeled.
    Can I change the amount or start year?
    Yes — use the chips on this page when available, or open a related what-if / calculator with a different habit.
    How is this different from a 7% compound calculator?
    Fixed-rate toys assume a smooth return. We mark contributions to a real index/crypto path, including crashes in the window.
    What if I had traded instead?
    See The Boring Alternative for story-shaped counterfactuals (options losses, round-trips), then run the same dollars through an index DCA calculator.

    What if the weekly amount wasn't always the same?

    These pages fix the contribution. SteadyGrow keeps the same long-term budget and sizes weeks from valuation — more when markets are cheap, less when they're stretched.

    Get weekly signals — $29/quarterLive $500/wk experiment →Boring Alternative →