What if?

  1. The question

    What if I bought Bitcoin instead?

    $500 every week into Bitcoin since 2015 versus the same habit in the S&P 500. Same calendar, two assets, real weekly data.

  2. Assumptions

    What this page actually assumes

    • Bitcoin DCA, $500/week, held. Not trading, not leverage, not a basket of alts.
    • Comparison is the identical contribution schedule in the S&P 500.
    • Start year defaults to 2015. Later starts drop the early cheap-Bitcoin years on purpose.

  3. Historical data

    2017-01-06 → 2026-08-28

    Bitcoin’s weekly series in this product begins in 2015. That is already a strong-history sample (low prices, then a cycle, then another). It is not 2009, and we do not back-fill those years.

    Series: Bitcoin and S&P 500. Same contribution calendar. No data before 2015.

  4. Interactive simulation

    Change the habit, stay on the real curve

    Amount
    Start year

    $1000/week · Bitcoin

    2017-01-06 → 2026-08-28 · $1000/week · Bitcoin

    Contributed$504,000
    Held to the last date$4,182,383
    Return+729.8%
    SteadyGrow value$6,649,773
    vs blind DCA+$2,467,390
    Bitcoin2017-01-06 → 2026-08-28 · $1000/week
     +$2,467,390 vs blind (+59.0%)Ended +59.0%
    Blind DCASteadyGrow
    $0$2.68M$5.36M$8.04M$10.7M2017-012018-122020-112022-102024-092026-08

    $1000/week · S&P 500

    Same $500/week into the S&P 500

    2017-01-06 → 2026-08-28 · $1000/week · S&P 500

    Contributed$504,000
    Held to the last date$1,127,879
    Return+123.8%
    SteadyGrow value$1,334,989
    vs blind DCA+$207,110
    S&P 5002017-01-06 → 2026-08-28 · $1000/week
     +$207,110 vs blind (+18.4%)Ended +18.4%
    Blind DCASteadyGrow
    $0$350k$699k$1.05M$1.4M2017-012018-122020-112022-102024-092026-08

  5. Results

    What the numbers say

    The Bitcoin habit and the index habit are not “risk-adjusted the same.” This page only answers the dollar question: same cash, two tickers, hold to the end.

  6. What changes if…

    Nearby questions

    What if the weekly amount wasn't always the same?

    These pages fix the contribution. SteadyGrow keeps the same long-term budget and sizes weeks from valuation — more when markets are cheap, less when they're stretched.

    Get weekly signals — $29/quarterLive $500/wk experiment →